In the entire cellular IoT market, "low price", "involution", "low technical threshold" and other words become the module enterprises can not get rid of the spell, the former NB-IoT, the existing LTE Cat.1 bis. Although this phenomenon is mainly concentrated in the module link, but a loop, the module "low price" will also have an impact on the chip link, LTE Cat.1 bis module profitability space compression will also force LTE Cat.1 bis chip further price reduction.
In such a background, there are still some chip enterprises entering the market one after another, which will lead to further intensification of competition.
First of all, the vast market space has attracted the layout of a number of communication chip manufacturers, and the market is so large that even if the proportion is very low, its magnitude is not small.
To a certain extent, the development trajectory of LTE Cat.1 bis chip and LTE Cat.1 bis module can basically keep the same direction, only there is a time difference, so the shipment situation and trend of LTE Cat.1 bis chip in these years can roughly refer to that of LTE Cat.1 bis module.
According to the research and statistics of AIoT Research Institute, the shipments of LTE Cat.1 bis modules in the past few years are shown in the figure below (a small number of modules shipped in the early period were mainly LTE Cat.1 modules).
It can be foreseen that the total shipment of LTE Cat.1 bis chips can maintain rapid growth in the next few years. Under this level, even if the market share of chip enterprises is very small, for enterprises that enter the market at this time and can successfully seize the market, their shipment volume should not be underestimated.
Secondly, the cellular Internet of things along the chain of communication development to evolve, there can be little development of technology, new entrants to choose even less.
As we all know, cellular communication technology has always been a generation to update and replace, from the current application and development situation, 2G/3G facing retirement, NB-IoT, LTE Cat.4 and other competition pattern is basically determined, these markets naturally have no need to enter. Then, the only available options are 5G, Redcap, and LTE Cat.1 bis.
For companies that want to enter the cellular IoT market, many of them are innovative companies established only in the last one or two years, compared with traditional cellular chip vendors or companies that have been struggling in the field for many years, they don't have an advantage in terms of technology and capital, while the 5G technology threshold is high, and the initial investment in R&D is also bigger, so it's more appropriate to choose LTE Cat.1 bis as a breakthrough point.
Finally, performance is not a problem, low price for the market.
LTE Cat.1 bis chip can meet the many demands of IoT industry applications. Due to the relatively clear boundaries of the needs of different industries, from the chip design complexity, software stability, terminal simplicity, cost control and other considerations, chip companies can formulate a combination of different features to meet the needs of different IoT scenarios.
For most of the IoT applications, the requirements for product performance are not high, only to meet the basic needs. Therefore, the current main competition lies in the price, ideally, as long as companies are willing to make profits to seize the market.
According to this year's forecast, Zilight Zhanrui shipments less than last year, about 40 million pieces; ASR basic and last year roughly the same, to maintain 55 million pieces of shipments. And move the core communication shipments in this year's rapid growth, annual shipments are expected to reach 50 million pieces, or will threaten the "double oligopoly" pattern. In addition to these three, the main chip companies such as core wing information technology, wisdom of security, core rising technology, will initially achieve a million shipments this year, the total shipments of these companies is about 5 million pieces.
It is expected that from 2023 to 2024, the deployment scale of LTE Cat.1 bis will resume high growth, especially to replace the stock market of 2G, as well as the stimulation of the new innovation market, and there will be more cellular chip enterprises to join in.
Post time: Jul-13-2023